Trust in AI, AGI, and Humanoid Robots | Robert Scoble - Ep 13

0:00 Trust Factor with Ron Greenley, focuses on all aspects to building human trust in online communications. Well, thank you so much for being here for Trust Factor. This program is really all about the essential elements and the profound impacts on your happiness, security, safety, and future and who or what do you trust as we look to our present and as you look to our future and ahead. In the show today, we're going to do a deep dive on the future of trust in the world of AI, AGI and autonomous robots. And I've got a terrific guest wit with me, And the goal of the show really is to help us understand the trust in our lives and being that we're being pushed to the limit in our perceptions around the impacts of AI and the future of AGI. I've got a trific guest with me. His name is Robert Scobel, and I'll bring him up on the stage here a second. He's probably most known for being the Scobilizer at scobilizer dot com, and I'll pull up his website here in a minute.

1:09 He's also a host of an online on video show that's on YouTube as well as X called Unaligned. I happen to be wearing his a shirt from his brand. So it's kind of a cool brand as it comes to AI and robots and things like that. How we're all struggling to cope and really kind of deal with this kind of feeling of being unaligned with the technology and I was developing as we look to the future. So Robert is a renowned technology evangelists. He's a futurist and known for his deep insights into emerging technologies and that includes AI, r VR, and cloud computing. He's been around the tech landscape for a long time. Is very well known in Silicon Valley and around the world for being an outspoken evangelist and really a passionate kind of aggregator of thought leadership in the technology sector and has really been known for many years for his blog. And so so let's go ahead and bring Robert up to the stage, and I'll play a little bit of a video here in a second from his Unaligned TV show and so we can really see what he's up to.

2:24 So let's bring him up to the stage, and Roberts, thank you for joining me. Roberts, what's going on? Trust when it comes to technology is about to really change. I trust, my family's life in an autonomous car next to a wall going eighty miles that I do. The same thing. I just drove all the way down to Washington, d C. With autonomous driving and it took me all the way down there. Yeah. Yeah, So we've been around. We're getting old together. Man. I was at Apples first child labor and Siri was launched on my show. And I've just had a crazy career of watching the bleeding edge of the tech industry and we're about to change into a different kind of technology.

3:12 I mean, in five years, there's a good chance to you and I have a robot in our house. I've been thinking a lot about that. Actually, I think I have a robot in my house right now. And it's called a Tesla Model three. That's true, but it's in the garage and can't come in the kitchen and do your dishes. That's well, that's true. But I think that there is some things that the robot can do that may be a little bit more value. Right, But are we going. To trust it with our house and are we going to let it? Hey humanoid robot go clean clean all my doors and it finds the sex toys next to the bed that's another level of trust, right, well, and also not ready for that.

3:53 It's about privacy too, I mean. That's what I mean. It's gonna have cameras eyes, and it knows everything about the world around you, and it probably knows what kind of sex toys you have and how to buy another one on Amazon dot Com, right, because Amazon dot com sells sex toys. Yeah. And you've been known for a long time of kind of trying to pull back the covers on this right, peel back the onion, or however you want to say it on the what's been termed many times, but by you as the freaky factor, right, Yeah, and that's kind of what we're coming into as an age of lots of freaky factors. Well, here's when last Saturday, entrepreneur came to my house and showed me a prototype of what he was building.

4:35 He's building a virtual being that uses a cell phone camera to see. So I was walking around with my camera and a virtual being was in my glasses. It could see the kinds of lights I had had in my house. Right, and go a nice podcasting setup, you know, like what and AI know can tell me about the you know, tell prompter. I have and the lights I have and the microphone I have right, and judge me, it's like, oh, there's a lot that's about to change. Yeah, and I do agree. Well, let me step back and say a little bit that part of this is about sensors right, getting into our lives and being able to detect data in the real world and be able to feed that up to some sort of algorithm or bigger kind of tech stack that can analyze that and make recommendations to us, actually make decisions for us. But that's a whole everything in the Smithsonian.

5:36 Walked around Washington, DC recently with my kids and took pictures like in the Air and Space Museum, the Holocaust Museum, and went to Thomas Jefferson's house, took pictures there, and I fed it into chat GPT from open Ai company, and it knew everything. Everything that's freaky right. Everything. It's like everything I took a picture of it could tell me where I was standing, what I was looking at, all sorts of things. It's like, whoa, people, This is what I'm saying. When you get a humanoid robot, it's going to know everything in your house and you're going to go, how does it know every brand in your house because it knows already certainly knows what Coca Cola.

6:17 Is, right, And I think that's been one of the kind of dark spots of the data gathering, right is kind of local neighborhoods and in your own personal residence. Those kind of things have been a little bit of a dark spot for AI and technology in general to actually know those things. Granted, we're putting lots of photographs out there and lots of other types of information about ourselves, but I agree with you. I think that everything is going to be under surveillance or able to be quantified in some sort of a sensor. Even our human bodies can be detected at a much deeper level, and I think there is aspirations for getting inside the body and really understanding what's going on. And that could be good or it could be kind of scary too.

7:01 Dag Kit Laus and my phone went, it's outside. Dag Kit Laus the co founder Siri, one of the three co founders the Siri just started a new company called Riva Health, and he showed me what he's building. You put your finger on an iPhone camera and it tells you your blood pressure. So You're absolutely right. We're about to get a lot of new capabilities because AI and these new large language models that are running like Chat GPT or Google Gemini or Anthropic Cloud or Perplexity, these kinds of things, and they're getting vision feature and they're ganging voice features at a frightening rate, and they're getting better. Right, And so you start to going, oh, she's the new chat GPT mobile app. You talk to it and it talks back in real time. Right, this is not Siri anymore.

7:48 It's a new form of AI that's doing this, and it knows everything that you aim the camera at. Right, So you're at Yosemite National Park, you aim, the camera will tell you, Oh, that's have to I'm over there, that's right as you seventy vollves, it'll tell you that because it knows everything. It knows everything. Then just start with that kind of understanding of where we're about to go. Yeah, and then also later on top of that, were Robert things that you've been talking about augmented reality too, So how do these those two things? And then we'll dive into the whole kind kind of robot stuff, But how is a augmented reality going to factor into this. We're about to get a pair of AI driven glasses from a number of different vendors. I just was at Display Week a couple of months ago here in Silicon Valley and I saw the new augmented reality glasses that are coming out. They have a projector that's a quarter the size of a sugar cube. Wow, at the edge of a wave guide that looks like something like this, and there's a projector shoving light into the glass, and then there's trillions of little or billions of little mirrors that are reflecting that image into your eye and it gives you a seven twenty p monitor in front of you at about a seventy degree field of you, which means the glasses aren't going to be completely immersive. I mean I just was at Somnium Space in Prague and they have a VR headset that's one hundred and forty degree field of you, so twice as much field of you, and you're really immersed, like if you're flying a flight

9:19 simulator in that it's really immersive and really messes with with your mind into thinking that you're inside a real plane flying around. Yeah, it's Gonnay. Glasses are going to be pretty fun to play with when they come out. There's several of them coming in the next eighteen months. This Snap is going to announce one in this fall. Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is coming out with one that's sposedly they're going to show it off this fall for the first time and then have it for sale in about eighteen months. So it is the form factor a little closer to what you would have with like eyeglasses. Yeah, the lighter weight displays. Yeah, these wave guides that I'm tying. So the augmented reality world is going to split into two. One is going to be one is a heavier device like this, right, a Vision Pro, a bigger, heavier device that has four K displays inside and has more immersion. It gives you more field of view so that you feel like you're really in the thing. The glasses I'm talking about are seven twenty P displays and less field of view about seventy let's call it sixty or seventy degrees field of view, which is not completely immersive, but pretty good, right, better than the hole lens and lightweight pair of glasses, and that that'll kick off. It's not that the mainstream is going to show up in eighteen months. But you and I are going to get a pair in eighteen months, and that'll kick off the

10:49 mainstream over the next three four years. Yeah. As I was kind of doing a little deeper research on this topic of where we're moving with AI and robotics and stuff, I just found so much information about how this is, how this could roll out, and how it's going to potentially impact our world and how we think about technology and all of our work and our lives, and I mean, it's so it's such a profound shift. That's a big reason why I wanted to do this episode because there's just so many elements to it, and I think we could probably do a three hour episode on oh yeah, because there's just so much implications. Yeah, every every night or two I'm on Twitter or an x space and audio space talking to people from around the world about about this new world coming at us, And yeah, we can talk for hours, many hours.

11:44 Yeah, and it probably wouldn't even cover most of the situation. Yeah, I mean, but certainly you can cover it superficially. But if you are an engineer and building this stuff, we're not going to get very deep. And we're not going to tell you how to take sensor reading off the eyes and do something with the hands. That takes a little bit more talent than I have. So I wanted to pull up your longtime blog so people could see it. And yeah, I'm wearing the T shirt. It's good. And this will kind of kick off our bigger topic. And your your website is here. Let me pull it up here. I've got it as far as your address. I thought I had it here, handy, let's sit here.

12:26 It's in here somewhere. Where did it go? All right? Maybe I don't, but I thought I did. So let's sit here so I can find it here. Oh yeah, here it is. So yeah, so here's your two Actually the first two domain names are your website. So blog is the best place to go. And you've got really long form content over there. So and on ax I write every once in a while and quirk a couple of thousand words. Yeah, so yeah, So it's awesome. And this article really goes into a lot of detail about this topic, about the Tesla Optimus and the opportunity of that and where it's going in its consumer strategy as you look out to twenty twenty eight and beyond, And I think, I don't know what you think the timeframes on these things are, but.

13:16 Yeah, there's several humanoid robots coming next year. One x dot Tech told me they're coming next year, and the AI team told me that this stuff is happening a lot faster than people know about. So yeah, now, when is it going to be that all my family and friends has a robot in their house. We're still talking probably the twenty thirties coming for that. But me and you, I mean, there's a Paul Walt company down here that's making a little four foot humanoid kind of thing. They're three D printing it, and it costs about eight thousand dollars to build one of those on a three D printer and by the electric motors and everything for it.

13:57 So it shows that the costs coming down to the consumer level. It's still a little expensive for a consumer, but we can see how we're going to get there. I mean, Steve Wisenach showed me his first color printer back in nineteen eight eighty nine. In fact, it was probably the first color printer in Solicon Valley. It was a dice sublimation painter to run photoshop one point zero and it cost forty five thousand dollars and today my seventy dollars printer is way better. Right, So I went from forty five thousand dollars to seventy dollars in twenty years or so. Yeah, So what do you think the costs on these things were going to be when they started to become available? There's so much demand for using it in labor. My brother wants to buy three of them. He owns a bar, and he owns two bars in Virginia, and he's like, I'd buy a couple of those right away, and I'd pay it one hundred thousand dollars for him, right, And so, because there's so much need for a labor like that, right, And if it gets that good where it could wash dishes is or load up a beer keg or these menial things. It really can be useful in a business like that. And it's cheaper than buying then hiring another employee for twenty bucks an hour.

15:13 Right, that's certainly true. And it doesn't have to sleep, I guess it only has to have some time to charge hard. You can get two of them, and when's charging, when's work? Yeah, it's constant where you're going, right, but now. Or maybe there's a battery pack, it'll unplug it and put it on a charger and take the fresh one up and plug it into itself and go back to work. Maybe it'll have a hot swap kind of thing like. That, right, Yeah, well that's only possible. I know that Tesla has been working on this, a robotic arm that can come down and plug into your Tesla when you pull in the garage or at a charging station, so you don't even have to get out of the car to plug your car in.

15:54 Wait, in a couple of years, there's not going to be a human in the car, right, so it needs to have a robot like that. I'll let that'll flag you in because someday you're going to send your car to go get charged, or it'll just automatically. Oh I need I'm down that twenty percent. I better go get charged. And yeah, how is it going to get flagged in? There? Is there going to be a human there? I don't think, So it's going to be a robot. Yeah, And a lot of people are going to be able to make their Teslas available for the Robotaxi fleet. But I do. I thought it was interesting though that the uber CEO came out and made some critical comments about the plans for Tesla on their Robotaxi fleet. Right, that would be from regular Tesla owners, right, And I thought you raise some kind of interesting questions about that, is, are people generally going to want to let their cars be rowed in by random strangers? I think it's a big question.

16:51 It is, But there's a lot of other things that will add value to the car long before you start picking up strangers. For instance, on Friday around Saturday, after drop my wife off at the airport, well, she often takes an uber so why not take a Tessa. Why not take our Tessa and have it drive back to me? Right? Why are you parking a car and a parking garage and paying thirty five bucks a day for the parking garage when it could just turn around and go park at home. Yeah? Yeah, And there was certainly a lot of scenarios that are going to come up about how to use these these robots of sorts, if their cars or human eyed robots that it's hard to imagine, and those are things that will come up as we get these type of devices. But like you just expressed, I hadn't thought of that part, but I have thought about having someone take me to the airport and then just ride back in the car. It's not like it's a big burden to them because they don't really have to drive. They just have to turn it on and then come back. Right, So it goes both ways, but certainly having it not need a human in the car is a whole interesting kind of deal. And then it goes back to where it's.

18:12 You can you can send your car to pick up a family member, or you go over and pick up your best friend and then bring your best friend over the house. Right yeah, for stuff like that. Right, Certainly, if you're going to do anything like drinking or anything, you want an autonomous car because then you can not worry about causing a tragedy or getting arrested or something like that. Right. Yeah, I think they call that drunk mode, Right, is that the. Well, and we're talking in a couple of years, a few years, but you can already do that in San Francisco. You can take if you're going out to the bars, you can take away Moo back to the hotel. Right Exactly, there's no human in the car, it's already here, right, So it's not just Tesla doing this, it's Zeke's and Wayma and Cruise from General Mode, which just made a deal with Uber just yesterday they announced that they're going to supply autonomous cars to the Uber network, which is real smart general motors to do.

19:09 Righteah, yeah, exactly. Yeah. So, as we move closer to the future of AI, I'm going to transition into talking a little bit more about AI and robots. But the artificial general intelligence I've been hearing talk I heard I think it was Peter Thield talk about this here recently on the whole touring skills right, as a bigger factor in AI than probably AGI. Right, Yeah, it feels like AGI is a little bit of a two. It's too ethereal of what it really means. But I think here's a simple way. I think when I went to the one ex robot company, they spilled some coffee on the table on purpose to watch how the robot would clean it up, And the robot had to be told to clean it up. Right, Hey, there's a mess here, can you clean it up with a With future AI, it's going to do that automatically, right, right, because it's going to be smarter. Right now, it can't really take its own actions, it has to wait for directions from a human being. But with the AGI world, it's going to be smart enough to take its own actions and plan out its own day and plan out its own tasks, right yeah, And that to me, that's when AGI is really here. And many people in the industry say it's two years away, which eighteen months again yeah right yeah.

20:34 So this Turing test, I guess, is really more about kind of the AI having human characteristics and their ability to process information and make decisions, right, and they're more autonomous, I guess in taking less directions. So we're probably going to have what two different types of robots, Ones that are very much task driven or well, you got your vacuum to do, and then ones that think for themselves. Right, Well, you got your vacuming robot, which it's mission is to keep your floor clean, right, and that's all it really does. It's very specialized kind of robot. This humanoid robot can do all sorts of things from teaching you to dance to washing your dishes. Right yeah. Yeah, So there's going to be probably two major types of these AI driven robots right, that have different skills or abilities, and you'll probably pay a premium for an AGI robot as opposed to a skills robot that we see right now in manufacturing and ones that are very kind of task oriented. So I wanted to mention also, the AI.

21:35 Is getting smarter, so you're going to even see that. Even the vacuuming robots are really getting much more capable because they first of all, they're getting camera sensors and three D sensors on these little robots which they didn't have before, so they can see things like wires or couches or stuff to go and clean and avoid right fringes. They can understand that a lot better. And the software, the AI itself is just getting much more capable of understanding the world it's in, and so it just does a much better job and has new capabilities. But yeah, I was thinking back to your show name Trust. There's a lot that's kind of come with a robot because it a humanoid robot is going to know everything about you literally.

22:25 Thus it's going to be connected to the Internet, it's going to be connected to AI models which are learning right, So the models right right, and. Like you'll know how to find you a specific thing in a Lows right on what aisle and where is it, and once we get enough data, it'll be really accurate. Right now, it's accurate, right, yeah, it's exactly. And a humanoid robot needs to know where a screw is in the lows because you're going to send it to the Lows to get you a screwdriver or screw, and so I better be able to find that and a less it already does. You know? This is the world model that's being built, and that's a lot of trust to give a robot because it's going to know everything. It's great.

23:14 I mean, I'm joking around about the sex toys, but not really. I mean, you're going to tell your robot to clean all your drawers one day, and it's going to find all your sex toys if you have any right. That's a lot of trust for people to give that computer. And I still see some big holes even in the Tesla full self driving and its ability to navigate the world. I was thinking about this yesterday when I was coming back from washingt DC. Is that I'm in like a parking lot at like a retail store or a restaurant or something like that, and I activate the self driving it currently still struggles to get out of the parking lot. And it's really because I'm not sure that the maps out there, like Google Maps and those kinds of things, are really at the detail level. Most of them are just mapping the main roads, right, so the Tesla vehicle doesn't really have good access. So I would think that the Google maps are going to have to be more complete to the full landscape and be able to index everything the right.

24:16 Keep in mind, I met the mapping team at Tesla in time and they said everything is Google. That Google makes the tiles on the display of the map, but everything underneath that is Tesla's, right, All the data is Teslass. And so they could rip out the Google part and put in their own part and get a much more capable map for their users. And I'm expecting something like that in the next eighteen months because that the data Tesla has its incredible Tesla goes across the Golden gate Bridge every three seconds. Nobody else does. Nobody else has an AI computer going across the Golden gate Bridge at that kind of quantity, right, that's right, So you start thinking about always say it has nine cameras and we have multimodal models now that can tell everything. So if it goes by a truck on fire on the bridge, it can tell God up in the sky, the cloud computing up in the sky for Tesla, Hey, there's a truck on fire. Here's a Gaussian splat of the truck burning down. Right, Yeah, and then people could be using glasses and actually walk around the truck on fire in the digital digital truck.

25:28 Right. And that's a new kind of map because it needs to put that on the map and explain where you should where the computer should take you right and avoid because there's a police action all of a sudden, because there's a truck burning down, and I can tell you, oh, there's three lanes a traffic blocked. Get over to lane one. You'll see all these Tesla's all of a sudden just changing lanes to lane one. You'll be like, what the hell is going on? And then you'll my later you'll see a truck on fire and you're like, how did they all know that there's a truck on fire in lane three? And they all of them moved over lane one?

26:09 Was how that did that happen? Yeah, it was because prior to Teslas went through their SOT. Right every three seconds, right. Yeah, yeah, so yeah, it's interesting. You know, you can know how long it took the fire truck to arrive to start putting out the fire. Right, So now I can feed that data back to the mayor and say, hey, your fire firefighters are taking fifteen minutes to get to the fire. They're going slow. Need some motivation or a new system or a new firefight. They could right, spend some money and build a new firehouse. It's closer to the thing. Yeah. So I think that the big takeaway here is of this conversation right now is that we have just seen kind of just a fraction of the amount of data gathering about our world, right, and it's going to be app and it's going to be put into the network and these these full self driving software and a lot of people probably don't know this, but that same software is being put into or that same kind of self driving neural network is going to be put into the Optimus robot, right or it's already in there. So yeah, I'm sure that software is under.

27:21 Augmented reality glasses too. Right the way, when you do get a robot. You're going to probably need a pair of glasses to control the robot because one thing about that's magical is you can embody yourself in a robot. Right, if you have a humanoid robot and you have vision pro or something like that, you can actually put yourself into the robot and walk around as a robot. It's crazy to think about that that I already did it at the one ax Tech robot company, and it's really crazy. So I haven't thought about that before. But you're you're exactly right, and that kind of changes the dynamic, doesn't it about human robot control? Yeah? And also if you're let's say you're trying to learn kickboxing from your robot, you're fighting your robot, which probably is going to be a few years because you don't want to be hit by these things. They're gonna hurt.

28:16 Right now, the three D printed carbon fiber that that they're doing, that case scale, which is the robot company in pu Walto, banged on it with a hammer and I didn't even leave a mark, not just didn't break it, didn't even leave a mark with a hammer, right, So imagine that thing hitting you. That's gonna hurt and you're not going to hurt it. Right, it doesn't have any well, it doesn't yet have feelings, but it certainly doesn't real body. Right. It knows about like pain, but it just doesn't feel pain the same way we do. We're biological beings. That's a digital being, but it can know that it did something wrong, like put its hand on a stove.

29:01 Yeah, yeah, that's interesting to think about that. Now. One thing that everybody's worried about right now is job losses as a result of robots, and I just wanted to throw some numbers out that I found. Is that there are people out there and tell me, Robert if these are wrong or from what you've heard that they're forecasting job losses about twenty million manufacturing jobs by twenty thirty, and about thirty percent of all jobs will be automated by twenty thirty. So it isn't like it's happening like next year or something like that, but. It's already starting to happen. I know of call centers that have gone completely automated, laid off a few hundred people.

29:44 I met a guy at a game developer conference who said they just turned on their first automated cold storage fact warehouse, so there's only robots inside the warehouse, moving salad around and stuff like that. And I keep hearing these kinds of stuf, so I know it's starting to have an effect. And I've been talking to the auto industry because I'm rewriting my spatial computing book with that arena cronin And in China they have completely automated car factories. No humans supposely. I'm sure there's still a few humans walking around here and there, but the factory itself is all automated. And you talk to the other you go to Detroit and you say, hey, when are you going to turn on your first fully automated factory. Well, they can't do that because of the labor unions.

30:31 Oh yeah, right. I imagine going to the labor union boss going hey, we're we got to open up a multi billion dollar completely automated factory. We're not going to hire you guys anymore. Sorry. Well that's a tough one. But in China they've already done that. Day's coming, isn't it. Yeah, Yeah, that's a question. Yeah. I also wanted to talk a little bit about all the different types of robots. I think this isn't a topic that I hear talked about a lot. But yeah, the type of robots, and they're bigger use case. So like robots for healthcare and washing windows. The Chinese have a little robot that rolls around the piece of glass and cleans it. Right. But the problem is with that little specialized robot. I have like twenty pieces of glass in my house, so I have to move the robot twenty times to clean all the glass in my house, right, probably twice so forty times inside do right? And it's a pan in the butt. Sometimes you can't reach the thing or whatever. Well, the humanoid robot can do that drungy work of moving the specialized robot around the glass and clean all your glass, and it'll charge you forty bucks to clean all the glass in your house.

31:43 Yeah. I think we've been living with robots for many years, and I'm not sure that people really think about these robots like the room bay that we mentioned earlier. And I think that there's been robots in healthcare for many years. There's these kind of armed based kind. Of surgical robots. Yeah. Yeah, surgical procedures were a doctor's really. Truly using the surgical robot. The halftics on that thing are just sick because if you put a needle through a fake piece of skin, yet it actually you feel it going through the skin. There's no feeling. It's all digital the robots across the room. There's no hookup, physical hookup to this, to the surgery tools, right, but it's all using halftics. It's really amazing thing. Yeah.

32:31 So I think robots have been a part of our lives for many years now. It's just that maybe we haven't thought of them in that context. True, the Rumba has been more identified as a robot, but I'm not sure that these other We. Don't get to see surgical robots. Very often, right, you know, we don't, right. Unless you're a surge and you see them all the time. But as a normal everyday first you probably haven't had your hand on a surgical robot, right. Right, right, But these humanized robots could re place nurses, they could replace surgeons at some point, they could replace doctors entirely. Someday, someday in the future. There's a lot more empathy f grades before I get to do that, right.

33:15 But I think, as we talked about earlier. Certainly help out. Right. There's a lot of things to do in a hospital that don't require a human touch, right. Yeah, like physical therapy. I think, delivering supplies to patients and even. Bringing food to people you know that are in the hospital that or moving them a little bit so they don't get a bed sore. Right, A couple of robots will come in and hey, it's time to move you around a little bit, right. Yea, yea, And that will probably save the hospital money, I mean. And it'll be better for the patient because who wants a human being to come in here room and see you naked and move you around.

33:55 That's sorry, that's true. I'd rather have a robot do that kind of you. Yeah, exactly. And then I think the home life side, So we had talked about earlier about dishes and cleaning the house and mowing the lawn and those kind of activities. The line is probably going to be a specialized robot, right if you really. Well, we have those right now, but they look like they're like four wheel kind of rolling machines, right, they don't actually have a human form factor to the current ones. You have to put a metal wire around your line so it knows the edge of the lawn. The new ones like Empire Sheep Company. I went visited them. They're making robots to do landscaping, and their robot can get on a piece of lawn without the wire right it knows it figures out where the line is just from the cameras.

34:43 Yeah, yeah, I think that's where it's going, right, just like the Tesla is trying to look at the world like humans do and navigate it and make decisions and things like that, that's where we're going. So these limit wires have been around or the dog or restriction area kind of device are going to be replaced by vision. Yeah, So it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out over time. And then we talked about the manufacturing robots, and I think that's pretty obvious that's going to be I mean, you just look at an Amazon warehouse and they probably have the robots already, so this isn't a new thing. But if I was a warehouse worker in an Amazon warehouse, I would be a little concerned about my future job.

35:23 So unless you fix robots and then you probably held you for a while until they start fixing themselves. Man, somebody has to fix those things. Every once in a while they break. I was hoping to talk about that, is that what's the changing landscape for work and jobs in this environment? Right? I do think just like what you said managing the robots or right, we do. Need a new policy and we do need to have a debate discussion about the policy. Is it let's say we take a truck driver off a drive in a truck, because that'll happen in the next fifteen years, right, what do we do with that truck? However, they were making eighty grand eighty to one hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year and all of a sudden they're not able to feed their family. That causes not good things in our society. Right, So we need to figure out how do we have a guaranteed minimum income for that person that they just sit at home and collect a paycheck so or do we give him the wealth to go back to school and spend four years and get a degree so they can repair robots or that there's nothing new, right, or even teach them how to do plumbing or put glass.

36:38 And my brother runs a glass shop, right, My brother in law runs a glass shop, and so he used to be a tech executive, and he learned over four years how to do glass and buildings and stuff like that. It took a few years. He told me to pass all the licensing and learn all the things that it takes to learn to run a glass shop. Right. And so you need to take a truck driver and give them the well to spend four years learning a new thing, right, to have a shot at another American dream. And so we need to have a policy. My dad escaped poverty in New York I by go in to the army and then getting the wealth to go to school and getting a PhD in electrical and material science, right, and that pulled us all out of poverty. Before that, our family was living in the projects in Brooklyn. Right. So the same thing as needed for everybody who gets laid off.

37:38 They need a new American dream, they need a new shot. And so we need a new policy. But how do you sell that to Americans because we're so divided politically that we can't even talk to each other. Yeah. Well, and there's two completely different visions. One is kind of looking at how the world has been as far as our economic structure, work culture, what our beliefs are and then thinking about this new technology based kind of change that's coming and how that's going to impact people's lives. And it's a huge transition, and I am a little bit worried that this transition to this new kind of world that we're coming into. I hate to say, but surveillance and data gathering and aggregation of data to kind of fuel the data that's needed for these robots and the technological innovations that we're right on the cusp of that's going to cause a lot of people to have a lot of change anxiety. And I think we're starting to see the beginning of it. I'm just not sure how long this transition is going to take and what the costs are along that transition.

38:44 While I mean to take a human I know humans who have gone from cooking in a kitchen to running a computer company, but it took a very special school to do that, and it took a few years. Right, you can't just learn how to program a computer if you're a truck driver. Learning how to program a computer is hard for that person, right, And so you got to go to school and have the time and not have to work three jobs just to put the money on your table to feed your family. Right, you can't be working an uber job while going to school. You're not going to have time to learn, right.

39:27 It's for me. I know people do it and it can be done, but it's far harder to learn to really learn something new if you're working at two jobs during the day and then you get home and you're tired and you're not doing your homework properly. Yeah. I mean I can see a day when one person, one human, owns, let's say, a thousand robots and they can build a company that offers services, whether it be plumbing or lawnmowing or window installation with their thousand robots and they've built maybe ten or twelve or fIF team billion dollar or million dollar company just based on having all their workforce be robots. Right. Yeah. Is that kind of what the future of work looks like for us?

40:11 Is who owns these? Right? And is there going to be robots that nobody. Owns, like a government owns, or that are constantly the concept to think about it like who would make it, why would it be made, why would it be put in service? And what off? What if robots made robots? Yeah, but then the robot owns it, right, And who owns the robot? Elon? Elon's going to claim owner ship. If an Optimist makes another Optimist, who's going to own the new Optimists? That's the Elon? You know, I own that thing. Yeah, I thought that the whole mantra as we look into the future was is that you will own nothing and be happy. So so maybe there's a scenario that maybe these things become synthient autonomous beings at some point.

41:07 I mean, this is really far off in the future. Right, Yeah, give us twenty to fifty years or like that happens. That's really going into the freaky zone to start thinking about that. Right. Here's why I know you're going to bring your robot on vacation with you. Let's say you got to Europe for a month on vacation. You got to bring your robot with you. I'm going to bring mine because it's very useful. Right, what Yeah, But why would you bring it? Is the question? Right. I might rent another one over in Europe and call that mine, right and for the month, but I'm going to have a humanoid robot with me on vacation because if I want, let's say I'm in New York, and I want to go to a pizza place, Well, you got to stand in line for an hour sometimes in some of those places. So I'm going to have the robot stand in line for me, and I'm going to go and sit at the coffee shop across the street until the robot gets near the front line. Then all popped in with the robot.

42:06 So I do know that there's a lot even you can go further. Just have the robot get what you need, you know, the pizza, and bring it over to you. True, that's a true vacation. You can just kick back and the robot can do all the grunt work while you're right right. Yeah. So I also know in Japan there's a robot research being done around robots that could be like companions or relationship robots, those kind of things that maybe our female males going bathway back and forth and humans get into. The bedroom off off the table, all right, robot didn't go into the bedroom.

42:46 At least not for that in situating anything. I know Elon has joked about this right now, but. You're going to fall in love with the robot in the other places, because it's going to make your grandma's favorite recipe fee for you whenever you want or clean your toilet or played chess with you. Right, you're gonna be like fun, This is really cool. Right, So there's probably a future where humans get into relationships with these robots, especially as they become already. And then I had a show eight years ago about people who fell in love with robots eight years ago and they're pretty ugly and free, stupid robots. Heard of what's coming? So a jerky and right.

43:28 No, yeah, they don't look like a human. They don't talk to you, right, they I just wasn't ready until just right now, right, so to do really amazing robots. So I know people are going to fall in love with their robot, even if they leave sex off the table. Yeah, well, because it's gonna it's gonna be fun to have a robot. Yeah, but you have to admit that with some of them, that's going to come as a as part of the package. Right, so extra fee. There's there'll be some robots that will be no problems. Because you and I both know that there's gonna be big money in that. Right. So it's a weird future, man, Yeah, yeah, it certainly is.

44:09 And then one a couple of areas we haven't really talked about yet, too, is kind of like space exploration. And the biggest fear is military applications for these robots. Right. I don't know about you, but I've had this thought that likely if Elon Musk is going to send the starship to Mars at some point, I think he stated that he's shooting for like what twenty twenty six or twenty twenty eight or something like that, that he. Should you see the engine designs and it's like, Okay, it's coming. Yeah, yeah, I mean, why wouldn't he send his first mission of autonomous robots to the Mars, not humans?

44:52 I would recommend that because there's a lot of radiation pelting the surface of Mars, and unless you have my dad is radiation experience. He said, you need six feet of water between you and the sky or a good chunk of lead, and both of those are really hard to do in space because it's costs a lot of money to get that much water up there and or dig it out of the ground and process it and get that much water. And it's hard to get that weight of lead up there. So you're going to live underground. If we get there. But you're right, why not send the robots to send to set up the tunnels and build some homes and build some sort of think thing that would support human life before we get up there.

45:37 Yeah, yeah, I can see that. I mean it just makes sense. I mean he's starting to I'm talking about Elon Musk. He's starting to roll these robots out first in the Tesla manufacturing factory, which is kind of like an obvious move, right, because he thinks that's the first step is the manufacturing side. It's who has the most demand, therefore, who can pay the most for the first robots? Right. Yeah, he's a profit he's a capitalist. He wants to make money. So I'm sure he wants to take the low hanging fruit first, which is a bunch of workshops. Yeah, I would think that he would want to kind of cut down on his labor costs in his manufacturing facility because he's under a lot of pressure to get these Tesla prices down.

46:19 His Chinese competitor has a factory that has no fucking humans in it, totally autonomous, Right, So that's the pressure. If you don't have one of those, you're not going to be as profitable. As the Chinese, and you're not going to be able to compete with the Chinese on quality score. Yeah. Yeah, so you want to have access to the Chinese market, you better have an autonomous row factory soon, yeah, or something really close to that. Yeah. And on the space exploration side, we've had lots of robots that have been doing work on Mars and things like that. I mean, I know that they. Get robots rovers right. They take a certain amount of direction from humans on Earth, but they have to operate autonomously because the transmission time between Earth and Mars is too long for it to be real time. It's not like there a couple.

47:08 Of minutes, right, It's said, you tell it to turn, you tell it to stop, because it's heading toward the cliff. By the time it gets the stop command, it's already over the cliff. Right, So they have answers in it the detect real world kind of scenario. So I think we've been playing around with robots in space for many years. And by the way, JPL invented slam map. So the technique doing that is slamp. Well, now your robot has a slam map, right, it works the same way that the robot on Mars used to work, right, Yeah, yeah, the same kind of technology. So yeah, it's a new world. Yeah, I think with the whole full self driving kind of stack that Elon has. I mean, I think robots will play an increasing role in space exploration, even beyond just trying to call an Mars. It's probably going to be a lot of aspects of our space exploration is going to be driven by by autonomous robots increasingly.

48:08 A lot of the humans are going to be down on Earth building things in simulators and testing them out long before you build them in physical Even if you send a whole bunch of robots, you're going to do that in a simulator first, to train all the robots how to build a tunnel or how to unload a lander and build things out of it. Right. So yeah, it's a it's a crazy world coming at us. YEA trust, a lot of trust. You gotta trust. You gotta trust your family's life to melt and sand I don't know, right, Yes, you have a tesla. I trust it all the time, next to the wall, going eighty five miles an hour, right, Oh I do?

48:49 I mean, I mean you have to in order to use it. Right, you have to let it go right up to the point of failure. Right, I mean I do it all the time, right, all, all, let it. I'll take it as far as. I'll be honest with you. I'm looking at the phone on the freeway. I don't know what you're doing. I'm letting the car drive. And it's driving really good, And it's driving right next to a wall at eighty five miles an hour. It could kill me at any point, right. Which is a scary thought to think about, too, Right, it. Is because you're right next to the wall foot and a half from the wall, going eighty five miles an hour, Like it could put me in the wall. It wouldn't take much.

49:30 Yeah, I mean it raises the specter of if somebody wanted to take you out, it would be really easy to do that, wouldn't it. Well, it's not really that easy, because you would have to fuck with the You would have to tell you with the tesla in a way that for instance, the tesla, if it gets a direction to make a left turn, the sensors are then watching to make sure it makes a left turn, and if it makes a right turn, it knows something acted right because something perverted its system. Right. So you saw that movie on Netflix that showed all the teslas without cars driving in crashing into each other. Yeah, and it definitely got people thinking about that, about being able to capture control of all the tesla's at some point because they are mostly all of them connected to the internet.

50:22 So yeah, loosely, that's what people don't realize either. The car is very decentralized itself, right. Yeah, it works in Yellowstone National Park driving you around, right, and there's no connectivity unless you bring your own starlink kiln. Right, So it's stored the map, right so, and it's got vision so it can mostly navigate that great. The map is a little wlonky because it doesn't have access to the map data, but it drives just fine. It knows how to drive locally without talking to the cloud computing. It can drive without being connected, right. So it's a fairly well thought out system. And that's why it hasn't been hacked at any scale. Right, it's really hard to hack the system.

51:11 That's good to know. A security builds trust. Well, right, and that you'll lose a lot of trust if it does get hacked. You see somebody driven into the wall, or a hundred people lose their life in a day or something like that, run through a red light because something perverted the system, Right, do you want to trust that anymore? And you'll be like, oh shit, I am not going to do that anymore. I don't know that you'd be able to tell if it was hacked or not, because I mean. Yeah, you would, because human beings are patterns and machines are patterns. And if the pattern breaks, if all of a sudden a hundred people get killed, you and I both know that we would be like doing a lot of research real quick, trying to figure out why did a hundred just kill human all At the same time, that's not a pattern that exists right now, right now, It doesn't put me in the wall right right. The other thing that the tech industry knows, and for your show, is they know when people get like three days worth their rides in an autonomous car, they change as consumers.

52:20 They change their trust of computers because now you're using a computer to drive your family next to a wall. That changes what you trust. Yeah, Because I think for the longest time, Robert, I mean both of us used to work at Microsoft, right, Yeah, And I think that this image of trusting computers to be reliable in kind of life and death type situations has always been a little sketchy because there's been all these instances of blue screen of death, right, yeah right. I don't know about you. Yeah, yeah, So it did take a lot of trust to actually get over that concern that, well, this is a computer and it's really handling one of the most important tasks that I can imagine, right, which is managing my car, and I just have let it do a lot of things.

53:19 So once somebody lets their tesla drive them around town and go through stoplights and stuff like that without touching the car, don't you become much more accepting of like automatic shopping in your kitchen. Yeah. I think that. I it's what the robot really is going to bring, right. I tend to think that maybe we've reached a point in technological kind kind of development that it is becoming more reliable and more trustworthy on the scale of safety. I don't know that I have the same level of trust when it comes to information and privacy. I think that that is I think that's about you think it's going to go the other way. Yeah, I know, Apple's been talking about blocking access to you.

54:05 Now, I think humans are going to figure out they get a much better thing out of their robot if they give it more data. You're going to teach your robot everything about you. You're going to have a conversation one night with your robot and go, hey, I like pepperoni pizza, right, because you're ordering pizza. And now from then on it knows you like pepperoni pizza. So the next time you order pizza and it'll go, hey, do you want pepperoni pizza like you usually have? Right? Yeah, I already see that behavior in my tesla. It tends to know what I'm or project what I might be doing based on my history. Right. Yeah. So if I usually go to let's say Costco on Saturday, and I get in my car Saturday afternoon, it's that's at the top of the list of destinations that I can select, Right So how did they know that? It learned that because of my past interactions with VINGA. Yeah, so we're already there.

55:01 What happens if you go to strip club every Friday? Oh wait, a second. Time to go to the strip club, I don't know where you're going exactly. So we're heading into a new world where we're going to give it a lot of data. There's going to be people who are like, give it all the data, Like I am. I'm giving it all the day. I'm recording every like this call is being recorded. Right. There's ais that will watch you this on YouTube and ingest it in a minute or two and write you a transcript and then write you a summary, and then write you notes and then tell you what's important.

55:42 Yeah. No, I couldn't agree more. It's crazy. So the next up I want to talk about is I think that'll happen. And last time we talked, there wasn't ai that ingested YouTube. Now there is. It's like and it the Lex Friedman podcast. It was like eight hours long. It took two minutes to ingest that. Wow, so it could watch the whole thing in two minutes, and then it has a transcript, then it has a summary, then it has notes, and then you can talk to it. It's like, oh, what else do you want to talk to this stupid video? You're going to talk to the video? Like what else you got? It's actually, I mean, I would say that's probably a huge kind of piece of content that would be good for training data or the AI, right.

56:25 So I think it's going to change our jobs too. Podcast now you have to think about you're going to have an AI as an audience, right, because many people are not going to watch podcasts anymore. They're just going to give it. They're going to send this show to their AI and say, hey, summarize this for him and tell me what's important in it. And oh, okay, there's a really important thing that we we talked about for a minute. Take us right to that spot and let us listen to that or see it, right if I showed you something. Yeah, yeah, oh yeah, totally. I mean, and I think we are seeing it in podcasting increasingly, that all this data, and I think that there's a little bit of risk those that are heavy podcasts or content careers like myself, about what the future looks like for the ownership that we have of our likeness and our voices, right, and how those could be used in the future. I know that YouTube is planning on translating all of the content on their platform into all the languages of the world and sinking that audio change to our lips and our videos right to make them align with each other and so we're seeing this technology being used in a lot of different ways. But I wanted to talk about military applications because I think this is a huge area too.

57:38 Robots are obviously starting to be developed in deployed in increasing ways to handle dangerous tasks and dangerous situations. And I don't know what you know about all this stuff. I mean a lot of this stuff the top secret to some degree. Now we're not a hugely top secret because they the bidding process for the military. Let's say they need a bunch of robots to do something on an aircraft care They'll have an RFQ and somebody will did on that. It's not hugely secret. If they have some weird ass sensor that nobody knows about, okay, that might be secret, right, they're secrecy, But pretty much you can figure out what the military is wanting just by knowing the military. For instance, an aircraft carrier has four thousand people on it. It's a supply chain. When I was on an aircraft carrier, there was two other ships hooked up to our ship, passing huge things full of food and stuff like that over to the aircraft carrier, and then most of the four thousand people never get to fight, never get to do the ship that go and blow things up or killp things. Now most of them are fixing engines or cooking or doing various maintenance things right, and all of those need to be trained. One thing you learn if you get go on an aircraft carrier is the whole thing is run by eighteen year old kids. The whole ship.

59:08 They drive the ship eighteen year old kids. Right, it's billions of dollars worth of taxpayer money and a kid is driving it. Well, the kid had to learn to drive it, right, eighteen year old had to learn, had to go to class and understand how to do it. Right. Now, with glasses on in a simulator, I could teach that kid how to do it much faster than with a book or even with a YouTube video. So over time we could see these ships being really controlled and operated by AI or robotic processes. Right, I mean a lot of these things, even if a druman. Is doing the work, because a human is still better at a certain job. They're going to be wearing augmented reality glasses and it's going to show them how to fix that thing and watch that they fixed it properly.

59:54 So but that thing crashes in the future, they'll be proof that the guy didn't fix it right, and it'll keep them from making the mistake in the first place, so the crash won't happen. Yeah, I'm curious if everybody's fear is going to be realized where there's kind of soldier or robots coming. I think I saw a news story somewhere that was talking about that China was creating soldier robots. You don't want these these little four foot things. Yeah, three D frient in. You can't destroy them with a hammer. You can't cut them. You can't get close enough to cut it with a chainsaw or something or or a dissaw. Right, it's not gonna let you get close enough. It's going to whack you. And so it doesn't even need a gun.

1:00:43 It's gonna keep cutting. And if there's a thousand of them marching down your street, you're not going to put up much resistance to them because you're not going to get very far with these parts. Right. And there's also the military robot dogs that are out there too that yeah, right. Enough said, I mean, the robot military force is coming, and it brings a lot of new ethical problems because if that robot's allowed to kill people on the street, because that's what military robots are going to do. Who's in charge, who's authority, who gets called into the President's office for making mistake? Who's accountable? Right? Especially if they're autonomous. Right, that's what I'm saying. If they're making decisions on their own, that's really a new problem. And who's going to break the rules? Right, because we can all get together and say, oh, we have new war rules. We're not going to do that in our war. It only takes one country to break the rules and then everybody has to do it, right.

1:01:40 I do wonder though, if all the countries kind of create these battle robots of sorts and that ultimately what we're going to see is wars fought between robots versus wars fought between humans and robots. Will do that for fun, right, football. Yeah, it could bring in an era where there's this constant war because there's no humans involved. Yeah, that's dystopian. That's a little dystopian, right. Yeah. Ron and Rock of War went on killed many of their kids, right, and they didn't get it. Neither side got anything out of that, just killed a lot of their own kids, you know, and you're gotta dedicate a lot of your GDP to having a robot war.

1:02:31 That's stupid, Yeah, but I'm sure it will play into the funding of the military industrial complex. Though they're getting that funny anyway. The real thing is we never fight the next war. We're really good about fighting the last war. Right when Timothy McVay blew up the federal building, we were good about figuring out how to fix how to keep that from happening, right, And we built satellites to watch farms, to watch the nitrate putting being put on the farm. Right. We changed all sorts of relationships with the chemistry industry. We track everything, right, and so now you don't have too many Timothy mcvay's blowing up federal buildings. That But we're not planning for the next war, which is these things are going to be cheap, and a country like China or even America can make many robots. And if you see a couple thousand robots coming down your street, you're not going to give up. What are you going to do? Shoot it with your shotgun? You're not going to stop two of them?

1:03:34 Right, Well, I think We've seen war already happen with drones. It's being used in Ukraine, right, and very cheaply. Yeah, it's like much cheaper than the Lackey Martin drone drones. Right, they bomb attached to them. We didn't plan on that as a war. Oh you mean there's gonna be an adversary. There's going to have a lot of little cheap ass drones and they're going to blow shit up. Oh my god, how do we stop that? The actual videos of that where the drone will actually chase the soldier and kind of crash into them and blow up, right yeah, and that's how they kill soldiers with the drones. Yeah, yeah, So it's craziness. Right. When I first I was in Israel at a tech camp and I saw a general in the Israeli Army teach me about drones.

1:04:23 The first drones, right, they had a big ass drone up in the sky that could target stuff down on the ground and spent a lot of money to blow up with some guy. Now you's done with a two hundred dollars drone. It's like it changes how you think about war if you're a war planner. Right, yeah, And when what other weapons of war do we not know about yet that they're working on could change the whole thing. I keep hearing us concerns about nuclear war, and I do kind of wonder about that. I think it would be suicidal if anyone pulled the trigger on that, right, So I think it's kind of. De escalate from somebody. Let's say Russia nuts something in Europe.

1:05:05 How do we're not going to stop? Nobody's going to stop, and we'll all be dead in like a half an hour. Well, it might take a couple of days to ratchet through everything, but it's not good. We don't want that kind of world for our kids or for ourselves, right, We don't want to do that. So yeah, it's almost like if somebody starts something like that, it's almost like they're they're committing suicide. Really in some ways, is anybody really going to pull the trigger on that? Going forward? Hopefully nobody feels this is the problem with escalation, right, How do you not escalate? Right now we're learning about that with Russia. We'd like to go kick Russia's ass, but we can't. They got a nuclear You got to de escalate, You got to take whatever they're doing and let them do it because they're a nuclear power and they got to do the same thing in the US.

1:05:52 So if we want to attack something that they like, they got to let us do it. Yeah, it's fascinating that we've mostly maintained kind of more traditional warfare, right with soldiers and airplanes and tanks and that kind of stuff. Is what I mean, our technology so far beyond that. It's just it's even with though. I met the F thirty five fighter jet pilots down in Las Vegas, right, and one of them was like, oh, I'm going to beat any F eighteen or F sixteen, which is what we sell to the rest of the world. And I'm like, oh, how do you know that? Maybe they're better at talented, more talented than you are. And he's like, no, that's not how this works because we're flying at night and I can see you, you can't see me, and I'm stealthy. You're not start with that, right, And then he said I can stop in midair and you can't stop. And he said soon we're going to replace the pilot because the pilot, if you're flying like a curve like this, you can only do eight g's.

1:06:51 Otherwise your head explodes. Right. Well, if if a piece of melted sand is flying your plane, they don't have that problem, right, right, so you can do some really crazy dogfight move that human can't do and you're going to win. Yeah. So humans are generally probably not going to be casualty as much as you look at the future of warfare, right unless they're like thermonuclear or if there's humans on a like a battleship or on a control craft. Right there, maybe you have a drone army and you're in your neighborhood and it's killing people. Right. That's the problem is what is the next war? Is really hard to think through because number one, we can't really talk about it in public airway. Let's plan out some terrorist attacks and see how those would be defended. That's not probably not a smart idea to talk about it in public space.

1:07:46 No, that's exactly. There's certain people that come and busy. Hey, I give talks to those people. Are nice, people, are patriotic, but they'd come and busy. You we saw you on YouTube talking about blow America. That's not good. We don't like that kind of thing here. So so it's as we look to the future, I know that there's some predictions out there about when robots are going to become shift into a humanoid like experience because most of the robots in our life. Okay, it's coming up next year is when we'll see usual purchasable humanoid robots right here?

1:08:28 Yeah? Okay, now is it good? Eh? You and I both worked at Microsoft with version one. Ever good? Now it's always version three, that's good? Right, yeah, exactly, that's true. We used to joke about it, right, wait till version three that's gonna be the one you want? Version has a lot of bugs. Yeah. Yeah. So here's where we are right now with with the Tesla Optimus robot. So I have this up on the screen now for those that are listening to this. We're kind of at the stage in the demos of mostly like in manufacturing type of environments. But as you can see on the screen, the Optimist robot and Rubert.

1:09:14 As far as you're concerned, why are we talking most about the Optimist robot? Is it just because of the FSD software ability. We have the most data of the real world. They have cars driving across the gone Gate bridge every three seconds. Nobody else does. And start with that they have more data than anythay else. They have better infrastructure for building AI technology, they have a better simulator than anything else. They have more data and then start with more data wins, right, as long as everything else is equal. And so they have that, and then they have the ability to manufacture things at scale. Right, and you go like, oh, who has the ability to make a million robotes? Well, Tesla certainly does. Yeah.

1:09:57 Yeah, So you know, right, do you think that Tesla is going to be the biggest robot manufacturer in the world Wars, there's. Gonna be rivals Brett Atkins Company's arrival. They got seven hendred million dollars. Certainly in China, you're seeing Unitry and others who are putting together pretty credible efforts. They just have the ability to build things for scale for cheaper than we could build them. Right, So eventually that wins Wars. Right, if we really do go to war, I know how that war's gonna work out. China's gonna win because they're gonna they have the ability to make things faster than we can and cheaper, and that eventually wins Wars. Right, It eventually wins Burning Man. Right next week, everybody's at burning Man. You know Steve Jervitsen who funded Tesla and SpaceX.

1:10:49 He has in his camp all the drone of people who are doing cool drone shows, so they haven't drone wars already at burning Man for fun purposes, not for military purpose, just to do a cool thing in the sky, right, And there's teams competing to do cool thing in sky right, which swarms the drones, the same idea as a military thing. Right. Yeah, yeah, it's just not cool thing in sky, it's kill you thing in sky. It may be cool thing too, because the military has dual purpose. One, they do want the ability to kill you. But then if you have a disaster, they roll up the aircraft carrier and feed your people for a while, right, and do surgeries and stuff because your hospital was destroyed or whatever. So that's a humanitarian effort.

1:11:41 The military serves the humanitarian because it wins friends, and right, it wins friends around the world. And we'd rather have friends than have enemies because enemies cause worse, and we don't want wars. Right, Even if you're in the war business, you don't really want a war. I met a guy who builds a new clear bombs at Lawren's Livermore Labs, and I said, what's your job? Like, It's like I build something I hope never gets used, and I have to prove to the president that it works. Yeah, in a simulator. Right, They're not allowed to test their product anymore. Yeah, so they have to simulate it in a simulator to make sure it will actually work, if it ever is needed to work. But yeah, it's a different world to military, right because of that.

1:12:31 Yeah, So let's move on to talk a little about in the last ten minutes or so of the show, how we might see these robots in kind of more of a service mode and how they they may be monetized, and what those kind of processes might be, whether it's a they're going to operate on a subscription model. I mean, if you think about your iPhone today, we buy apps, right, and or we acquire apps could be interpreted in my mind as kind of like maybe like a skills type platform. It has certain abilities right in the app. Right. Do you think that's going to be the model that is brought to let's say Optimus, is that you'll be able to subscribe to certain skills like the ability to mow the lawn, or the ability to the dishes or things like that.

1:13:16 Yeah, Like household chores cost fifty bucks a month, right, and the first one, I bet if I saw a robot on my street, the first one is going to be let like in a delivery van or an Amazon truck or something like that. And replacing that the figuring out how to get a product from my curb to my front door. Right, A robot can by that. And that's part of the delivery service fee. Right, We're already paying it. Right. We pay a human to deliver our Amazon factions to our front door and ring them ring doorbell, which is also on by Amazon. So in the future, you're going to have a robot that does that and that's going to the feed of delivering the package is going to pay for the robot, right. So that's one thing.

1:14:05 But if you want to bring it inside and have it set your table, maybe able to say, hey, I can set your table the first time for free, but you know, if you want me to come in and set the table every time starting next time, you got to pay something ten dollars a month or something. Right for household food chores food right, the food chore package. Right, Oh, you want the food chore pack something like that, right, So you pay your twenty bucks a month and it'll let set up your table and wash your dishes. It'll maybe help you cook if you're doing cooking right. Food chores. Oh you want to clean the bathroom, that's a bathroom chore. That's another twenty bucks a month. Right, Yeah, I can see that right.

1:14:47 The glass cleaning robot's a good example. China already had. I saw them at the Consumer Elec trying to show nine years ago they have glass cleaning robots that going up and down in your glass and clean it, but they have to be moved. Well, a humanoid robot could bring that robot to your house and put it on the glass and charge you. Oh you need your glass all dirty? Man? I could clean your glass up for forty bucks, right, I'll take that day. Yeah, and I'll just move the glass robot around the house until all the glass is cleaned. Yeah. I mean I think that these things are going to I think the spectrum of monetization on these things is going to be pretty vast of different ways that they can these skills and these abilities can be monetized.

1:15:36 I do wonder, do you see a robot ever becoming a content creator. Yes, your car will be if there's a fire on the gold and Gate Bridge and your tesla goes by the fire and it ingested the video off the cameras and made a Gaussian splatter or a neural radiance field, which is a new three D scene, and it puts it on x dot com into the fire feed. Right, isn't that content that a robot created? Yeah? Yeah, I am social network that's completely done by robot. Yeah, I can do that. I mean even podcasts. I mean that's a big discussion in the podcast industry right now, is how far down this path of content creation do we want to accept in podcasting?

1:16:23 Have you used a script at all? Oh? Yeah, oh yeah I used so the. Script had me read to it for thirty minutes, and now I can type to it and it talks like me. Yeah, yeah, I have a clone of my voice in there. Right, they go, right? So how much do you as a podcaster? Do you use it to fill in a sentence here there where you made a mistake or said it too many times or something like that. You cut it out and yeah, I can cut it out right and tell it to make you smarter. I said something stupid there, can you exactly? And it could? Right? Yeah, totally. Do you use that for one sentence out of one hundred, right, and then the next week to use it for two sentences out of one hundred. Another couple of months, are you using it for twenty sentences out of one hundred?

1:17:10 Yeah? I found that I used it too much early on, and then I've been kind of backing off from it a little bit because you have this kind of tension between authenticity and too much of a robotic type of consumption experience. Right, if you cut it too much, then it because it edits the video and the audio. I think the audio turns out better than the video does because the video gets a little chopped up, right, So you're kind of jerking around in the video while you're watching it because it's editing that, right, it's pulling out like maybe pauses, or it's pulling out spaces, or it's pulling out certain words, and that causes kind of a disruptive kind of consumption experience. But really my interest on that is voice cloning the video capability, right, because autonomous robots don't have to take the form of humans, right, For them to kind of take over, just like what you said. So that could be a whole podcast network that's generated based on AI technology or AGI type of technology that takes a subject and drolls into it and creates very human like experiences.

1:18:18 Yeah, and with less and less over time human interaction or instruction. Right, right, it's going to get better and better at writing or talking or doing a video avatar, moving avatar. I can totally see AI content is coming. It's still it's hard to wrap your head around it because we don't think about what a robot could do better than like the Golden gate Bridge fire. Right, If there's a fire on the Golden gate Bridge, I'm not there. For me to get there, it would take some time, but a tesla is rolling across it every three seconds. Yeah, right, so it's already there. So a car can be like, oh, a truck just started on fire, right, and another one goes by, Oh, it's burning good. Another one goes by, it's burning really good, and it keeps updating the Gossians flat, so people can watch it at home burning, and then you can it'll report when the fire truck gets there, and I'll report how many lanes of traffic are closed, and it'll report all sorts of things, right, and that's a news story fire on the go and gate bridge if traffic is slow. Right, Well, that could be written by an AI. There's no need for a human being to write that. There's no value in a human being writing that other than.

1:19:40 Yeah, I think it's already getting to a point where the video and the audio are almost indistinguishable from human experiences. We're already there. I can imagine what it's going to be a year or two years from now, and also what chat GPT is going to look like when it comes out with five point zero or so point zero in the future. How much improvement is going to happen in there? And and it's hard to really grasp what the improvement could be in there. Is it just intelligence? Is that where the improvement is or is it just quality of output? I'm not sure what that spectrum looks like. I mean, what makes a good Let's say I was comparing you your podcast versus an AI part podcast, right, yeah, what makes you better? You're more knowledgeable at a certain thing.

1:20:26 You're human, and so you have a warmth to you, right, A little randomness, a little weirdness. Right, we're biological and the computer is going to be cold. It's going to have a set pattern that it was programmed to do, right, and so the stories might not have as much detail as a human being. Right now, Sorry, there's a leaf blower right outside my window. Okay, of course that always happens while you're recording. Of course. Anyways, over time, how do you improve the AI want to be better than the human? One detail detail? That training data, right, it's the same thing that we're seeing with the full self driving stuff. It's more training data in different situations and scenarios because you know, I came across on my trip back from Washing DC scenarios that I'd never been in before on the freeways because of construction and those kinds of things that it just couldn't figure out. It because the needs more data, right.

1:21:23 To become more human like, Right, to have more knowledge about the world and more of a belief on Twitter's face. A lot of times I'm talking to Dylan, who's researcher at Unity Labs, and we talk about digital consciousness all the time. That's his favorite topic, right, And so how does an AI get more human like over time? Right? Detail, belief system soul, a digital soul. I know a guy who's building digital souls for robots, right, So as the robot lives its life or operates, it becomes more human like over time.

1:22:03 Yeah, so we have to capture more data from either humans or the environment or you know, the physical world, right, which, just looking at the map that Tesla uses for their full self driving is not complete, right, It's missing. It's trying to infer based on the video cameras, but it's still missing things. Right. Oh yeah, if there's a ladder in lane one, it doesn't really know that well and certainly doesn't know it the way it's going to know it in five years. Where like in Silicon Valley, there's so many teslas here, there's often I'm in a pot of four to eight teslas, right, and so you start thinking about, oh, wait to say, and the people up ahead of me could be imaging the road and oh there's a ladder in lane one.

1:22:50 It could tell my car, hey, get out of lane one and there's a ladder up ahead right right, and my car will just switch the lane three and be like, why are they just change lanes? Oh, there's a ladder in lane one. It doesn't do that kind of stuff, but it will in the future as it gets more data right and gets the abilitation here. Yeah, I'm seeing that a little bit already with the software, where it'll see something in the road and it'll kind of get out of the way, right, it'll just go around it because. It's not doing it in a systematic way and it's not doing car to car communication like it's going to probably in the next eighteen months. And this is coming right car ahead of you sees an object in lane one, your car is going to switch its lane over lane three because it knows there's an obstacle in lane one.

1:23:35 Yeah, So so the most likely scenarios it's going to be tesla to tesla communication. Right. So there's lots of situation where I'm driving down the road and there's a tesla in front of me and one on the side of me or whatever, and it currently doesn't have any idea that their tesla is because it may not have a reason to, right, But when we have a reason to then it'll probably put up there in the screen that it's a tesla. Right, there is some car to car commune unication because there's a red line telling you there's traffic up ahead. All right, so, yeah, is that coming far? Is up ahead of you? Reported to Google? Though? Is that coming from Google? Though? No, it's coming from the data's coming from Tesla's as well as good. Google actually is buying it from Horizon.

1:24:16 It's funny. I saw an accent on a two lane road and by the time I got up to the accident, the phone screen started turning red right because people were backed up behind the accent and slowing down and stopping. And I was like, I asked a Google guy who works on maps. I was like, how did it get read so fast? Because you didn't have very much data? There was fifteen cars involved. He's like, oh, we're buying the data from Horizon. I'm like, oh, you're getting real time data from Horizon cell phones that it knows the Rizon cell phone is stopping on a road so it turns the road red. Yeah, that's what we do. It's like what people have no idea all these relationships between Verizon and Google doing real time data sharing. We really don't think too much about that, but that's how these things work underneath. Yeah.

1:25:13 Yeah, So how would you recommend that just a person watching this try and learn more about what the future looks like with this stuff. I know we've talked a lot about it here, but I think we've raised more questions than we've answered. Probably over on x dot com, I went through one hundred thousand people's accounts and built lists for you. So I have twenty thousand people in AI world on four lists. I have a robot list just of the robot people. I have a neuroscience list just for the neuroscientists. Right, So you watch those lists over time, You're going to learn just by watching reading, Right. That's one way. The other way is just dive into the industry and start do what I did. I made a database of fifty four hundred AI companies, right, so I could have some idea of what's happening in this industry and what I should be, what I care about, what I should pay attention to, and what's happening. And I can watch lists of all those on x pro and so in one screen, I can watch the whole entire world go by. If you're not using x pro, unless you're missing out, But yeah, I built you the list there. They took thousands of hours of bills you're not going to build better ones.

1:26:23 I have the lists that are back by far the best lists in the tech industry. Yeah. So Robert, you started your own show, it's called Unaligned. Yeah. Here in the last six months or so, and on your x account you've got lots of posts that you put up there about all sorts of AI type topics, of VR AR kind of topics. But I think you've really started to shift towards more AI. Yeah. Yeah, I'll come back the AI driven glasses or X our mixed reality glasses. Right. So I've been covering that world spatial computing devices. I've been covering that world for a long time, and so as that gets hot again, I'll probably cover that quite heavily because that's highly interesting to me. All the AI I have they're outside, but I have all sorts of pendants and things that new kinds of hardware that has AI inside of them, and I'm watching that world. I'm just really much more bullish on glasses because I think the AI needs to show us things, right, in addition to talking to us.

1:27:26 Yeah, and it's also a data gathering thing too, right, So it's seeing the real world from a human perspective. Here's a fun one. Right, you go to a national park, like we went to Antietam National Battlefield, where the biggest battle of the Civil War was. Right. I take a picture of the cannons on the field, and it tells me about them. I take a picture of the church on the field. It tells me about the church. I take a picture of the signs on the field. It tells me about the signs. But you know, because the signs just have a few words on them, it gives me a whole story about what happened at that mark. Right, And then I ask it, can you simulate a battle on the field, and it can't. It sends you a picture.

1:28:07 It's like, oh, this is going to get really crazy soon because you can simulate all sorts of have it. Could you show me what happened in history at this place and it'll simulate it and send it back to you and it'll be something accurate. Yeah, yeah, I mean it's. All the photos that they had. Right. It's a pretty freaky world that we're coming into, Robert, isn't it. Yeah? It sure is. Yeah. And we haven't even covered music. There are so many topics to talk about. That's what I was talking about earlier. We could do a two or three hour episode here just on trying to cover the whole spectrum of this, because it's going to impact every aspect of our lives absolutely, and it may let's spend a couple of minutes talking about something we did kind of allude to the exciting parts of this, but there's also some some scary parts too.

1:29:01 Technology always has a bad and a good. Right, Cars, We all use cars because they have a good, but they kill people. They have a bad. They can kill people, right, forty. Thousand people in America die every year in them. So right, so they kill people. It's humans killing each other and the thing, but you know it's a problem, and so yeah, every technology is like that. A database could be used to catalog people in a concentration camp, but it could also be used to find cancer. Right, So it has a good and a bad, and humans have to figure out how do we do more of the good and most of the bad. Yeah, and that's where this question of trust comes into too, is it?

1:29:44 I think I even talk about neuraling what happens to trust when you get a wire on your brain? Well, does that turn you into autonomous vehicle. Yes, yes, it does. This is the problem coming. That's one of the downsides of neural is you don't have free will anymore. If there's a wire on my brain, I am not in control somebody else's. That's a big problem. Yeah, I mean, I mean, and somebody else is listening on my inner dialog, which might be despicable at times. I don't want a government or Elon Musk in my head, particularly if I'm a young kid it was starting to figure out their sexuality, right, right, or something like that, where you don't want thought crime to happen. That's dystopian.

1:30:34 Yeah. So we got a comment from a viewer of this is that this does feel like listening in on a conversation between two people on a park bench. Robert, that's the way we are, right. Or in a Starbucks or something like that. Right. I remember driving around with you in my car in Seattle, right when we worked at my Sense exactly. You know. I think you recorded that as a video back then too. That was before people were really doing that kind of stuff. Yeah. So, and then you came out here last year and we met, We caught up with each other and we both had Tesla's with us at that time. But yeah, it's a it's a it's kind of a strange world, and I think a lot of people feel uncomfortable with what's developing in the way it's moving time.

1:31:26 A human eyed robot with cameras. You're going to have it in your house set some someday. Maybe it takes ten years, but you're going to have a robot like that. That's freaky. What do you mean. I've had these arguments with family members about Amazon Alexa device. It's listening to you right, Oh wait until you got a robot with that can move things around your house and see everything and catalog everything and track everything in your house, like it'll know where your kid catch a bottle is. Oh yeah, well, Also, I don't know if you've had this happen to you too with those in home kind of audio devices. I don't want to say their name, but it'll disrupt our show. But exactly so, these but I think they're going to convert into almost like AI robots as well. It's going to be audio, but it'll have the ability to have reach. I mean, I think most people have the ability to control their home, their lights.

1:32:26 They're built in functions of their home right with a voice command. So I have digital lights with microphones and a computer underneath, right, and you can change those the color on those on your phone. And there's microphones so you can do like E d M concert capage, good to music. But I do kind of wonder kind of as we move into this, are we going to be able to trust any of this stuff? And I think is it wise for us to be skeptical of the darker side of this kind of stuff? Yes, but it's also it's coming right, right, and we either have to accept it or live in a life of anxiety, right, or.

1:33:12 Even go amish, or you're join the homage. There's thirty thousand people that who don't have computers and maybe have a little phone. But you know, yeah, that's a whole other level of cut the cord. I think it was. Yeah, you can go join them, I can start your own call. We don't allow those new fangled AI computers. In our cult, right, And I do think that there's going to be a certain amount of people that are going to do that. Yeah, because of the fear factor. What do you mean, I'm robot's kind of come in my house and watch me naked, No way, not in my house. Well, it's also going to potentially enable better law enforcement too, right, more control.

1:33:53 I broke my window and my test out front and just write a bunch of other staff. I was swinging an axe round. The first thing the cop wanted was the door the doorbell footage, right. Or the tesla footage. I mean, yes, for all the footage, and that of course I had no footage because I had I turned off my testis because it was out in front of my house. I figured out, why do I need a surveillance of myself? Well, now it's on, yeah, because of this incident, right, And I've made sure that the ring there's a ring device on my garage that looks at the whole driveway, right, and so that's on now. And I have a ring doorbell that's taken video of the front of my house too, and that's on now. So next time the cop needs some footage, I'm gonna have some footage.

1:34:44 Yeah, totally. And to some degree, that's a little bit of a deterrent, right from criminals attacking your home or something like that, is that they know they're going to be videotaped, if you I mean I've got three four Now I've got four ring cameras myself that are pointed around the house. So so if anybody tries to approach my house, they're going to get videotaped. So so one of. Your readers, I see it on the screen, just said sixteen grand wash the dishes and you get an error. Yeah, you have a feeling it's not going to give you an error on anything you ask it to do because the Stanford robots and know how to do thousands of tasks. Right. Yeah, it's not just washed dishes, it's like know how to do anything a human being wants to ask it. Okay, mean, go garden and weed the garden, bring me a dich, wash my clothes, if iron my clothes, clean the toilet.

1:35:34 Right yeah. I think what what we're seeing with that comment from smirk Station is a skepticism of the real reliability of the tech, right when we've seen this even with Tesla, that these things don't start out being perfect. Right, they do have errors and flaws and things that it doesn't yet know about. But right I saw a robot clean up a mess on a table and it was it was real smooth about our confident about it like a yunan with me, right, but. Over time it gets better. It's the same thing with the test test of full self driving. I'm waiting for the next update to the full self driving stack that takes me into the five point zero spectrum, the twelve point five x X or whatever that's coming. And I'm this is another factor too, So you're going to have a certain amount of obsolescence that is built into this too.

1:36:28 Where when my model three and your model three, because I know you've got a twenty eighteen one is probably on hardware three, right, and that may not be able to go much further because of the processing capability that is needed to run these more advanced neuro NEETs. I do wonder. I know Elon's working really hard to try and get the next version of full self driving onto the hardware three cars, because there's a lot of Hardware three cars out there. I think is over two million, right, So there's definitely a lot. Those are likely to the cars that we would put in a robo taxi network. Right. If I just got to my wife a new model why well maybe the Model three it's in the robo taxing goes makes us some money right and does some work and I don't care that gets trash because it's an old car anyways.

1:37:17 Right, Yeah, and some people paid fifteen thousand dollars for full self driving on a hardware three platform. Yeah, so I think, elon, maybe it coming into a pickle here because the cars are not capable of being upgraded to Hardware four or coming hardware five capabilities unless some now figure it out. I don't know that they're going to be able to. It's going to know pretty quickly what it can't do, like a mile three, what can it not do that? A model four Hardware four, which is I think three times more compute on it, right, and can run a bigger parameter, large language model and have more accuracy. Right, Okay, it could be smoother, right, it could be more luxury, more more refined of an experience. It's more human like, right, That's what the bigger model gets you. In writing too, write if you use chat GPT, the big model, you get a better answer than if you use the small Mall right.

1:38:16 Well, and we still don't have AI in the car yet, right. Not like that, right, but you know that's coming as well, that you need a large language model in the car with like a Grock in the car that you can talk to, Hey, Grock, where's the cool nightclub to go to tonight in Las Vegas. We're going to Vegas tonight, right, Yeah. Because a small thing like like I was on an eight hour drive with my Model three last night, and even a small thing like asking it to stop at a gas station or to find a bathroom or something like that, it didn't quite know how to handle that question. And it has the data, by the way, certainly by if you look at superchargers, right, it tells you to stop at Harris Ranch supercharger, and I did. It's right there.

1:39:00 If there's a bathroom nearby, or a restaurant or a hotel, right, So it knows it has that in the database. It's just not hooked up. And eventually I can see the car learning about my patterns around things like that and prompting me do you want to pull over or something like that. Are you needing to stop or you I mean, I can see it kind of beginning to go at a deeper level of managing the process of going on a long drive. Right back to trust, what if you ask Rock take me to an in and out well, there's three in and outs near me, it knows it could know the line length at each in and out. Right, there's tesla's in line, it knows how long in the line is.

1:39:41 It has video of that, and it could count all the cars in line. Right, and certainly as soon as the Tesla goes through the drive through, it knows how long it was in the drive through. So it knows the average wait time at that specific drive through. So your car could know, oh, this one it has a short line, let's take you there. That's trust because maybe you don't like that, right, but you're being driven there because it has a short line. And you have to trust that the computer made the right choice for you. And that's a lot of trust to give a piece of melted sands. It's going to have to be proven that it delivers on the promise of the future. Right, and it takes me the.

1:40:22 Right in and out right, If it takes you to close it in and out, you're not going to trust it, right, You're going to go this is stupid. It took me in a bad place. It didn't give me the right thing, right, and you lower your trust, and so now you don't believe it the next time you ask for in and out right. But I have a feeling it's going to be way better than any of us, and therefore we're going to learn to trust. I already trusted. When it takes me off the freeway, It's like, why are you taking me out the freeway? Well, I see it. There's a bunch of traffic on the freeway. Oh that's you took me out the freeway to take me around all the traffic. Oh that's smart. Does that already? I think it does that. It does. One day, I was picking the kids up and it took me off by normal pick the kids up from school route it's usually the same streets. Took me on a different street. I'm like, well, in fact, I overwrote it because I didn't trust it. I overrote it because I was like, no, it takes me into my usual route. It turned out there was a bunch of cops closed the road. It knew about that, and it was trying to wrout me around it.

1:41:25 Yeah, I've had to. After a few of those kinds of situations, you learn, Oh no, we better go with what the computers saying. A computer is better than us. It has more data about what's going on. Yeah, it does get back to that to some degree. I can totally sympathize what that thought because of the navigational routes that it takes. I mean, sometimes the car takes off and goes on a route that I wouldn't even have thought to do, and I just have to sit back and trust it and say, well, maybe this is a faster route that it was able to detect that I would have no idea. It would be a possile stability right on the side streets or something like that. I can just imagine trying to drive through La or something like that. It would know all the backstreets to avoid the main freeway. Right.

1:42:08 So that's one thing I want Grok to do. Hey, Grek, take me the seating route, or take me the fastest route, or take me the smoothest route, or take me the cheapest route, or take me the safest route. Right. My friend who runs an insurance company has a map of every street in America how safe the street is. I didn't know that until I had a friend who worked in an insurance business. But every street is different safety rating. It has a different accident level, a different consequence for driving down the street, and so it could take you the safe route. Right. It knows which route is the safest, it just doesn't present that yet, right, But an LM could go through all the various routes and bring them to you.

1:42:50 Well, they could probably map all of the in the training day. It could map all the locations of fatal accidents, yeah, or something like that out and put a weighted factor into that route and its risk factor. Now, granted, the amount of crashes in autonomous vehicles like a Tesla are dramatically lower than human driven cars already, right, So I'm I kind of wonder about that to some degree. It's like the insurance companies are not factoring in whether or not a Tesla has full self driving in it. And I'm a little torn whether or not I want to tell my insurance company that I'm using it at this point. But at some point I would think that would be a pathway to hit lower insurance rates.

1:43:33 All right, So a human and autonomous car might start at the same safety rating, right, and safety rating is does your car hit somebody else? Because that's when an insurance claim comes to you, Right, If somebody hits you from the back, they're paying, so it causes you problems, so you don't want to have that happen. But that person's paying, not your insurance company. And so over time, the accent rate in an autonomous car is going to keep going down. The human car is going to stay the same or even go up. The humans are actually getting worse at driving because, yeah, because we're all staring at our cell phone boom, we hit somebody in front of out shit, right, and an autonomous car won't do that.

1:44:19 My car never hits somebody in front of it. Right. If somebody slams on its breaks in front of me, I'm slimming. My car slams on its breaks and then stops in time, not a problem. The person behind me, who's on their phone may not be in the slams into me, but they're paying the insurance, right, So the autonomous car, the insurance rate keeps going down over time, the wholesale cost of the insurance keeps going down over time. So if the price stays the same as a human insurance company, then the profit is going to increase overtime. But if they reduce the price, then the price will go down over time. And I would assume an insurance company is going to reduce the price because they're competitive and they want Hey, Test owners come and sign up on us, or Test was going to do its own insurance, which it is.

1:45:06 Right, Yeah, yeah, it's always doing. Ymon knows this. He knows that if I charge somebody one hundred dollars a month for insurance right now and they're using full self driving twenty percent of the time or better, as they increase their use of full self driving because it's getting better, Right, next year they'll use it forty percent, and the year after that they'll use it eighty percent. Right, because it's going to get really much better over the next two years. So the insurance rates are going to come down for like an for a Tesla, and they could reduce the price and really ebys rate the rest of the insurance industry because the rest of the insurance industry has to support guest cars cars.

1:45:48 Yeah, and Elon has been saying for years that this robotic technology, the autonomous stuff, is going to change the economy. It's going to make a but the cost of labor basically almost go to zero. And I think to some degree that's a reflection of what you're saying there. Is that not zero, but a lot less, right because my Tesla City in the garage right now, it costs about two dollars an hour for financing and everything, and well you put a human in it, that goes up to twenty dollars an hour, right, right. And so eventually autonomous car is going to be able to beat a newber style like human driven uber style car by a lot and have a better experience because the autonomous car is going to be consistent and it's not going to talk too much. It's never going to be drunk or a stone or anything like that, or never going to be tired because it worked all night long, right, And it's not going to smell because humans smell once in a while. Right. It's a better experience, it's a more consistent experience, it's a safer experience, right. So autonomous cars have a lot of advantages there, and they're going to be cheaper some day.

1:46:52 Yeah. So I also heard some speculation that the new robo taxi that's going to be announced here in a month or two is going to have an automatic inside cleaning capability. Because if you're going to be in a robotaxi, right, there's going to be sanitization that needs to happen in the vehicle right between writers. So it's it's an interesting aspect of it too. And that also like it. Built in a little boat a vacuum robot, and I'll just go through it and clean up everything and then validate it and go, Okay, this one's ready to go. There's nothing wrong with. It, right, Or have it come up through the seats or something like that and then it quick drives or something like that to sanitize what they do there.

1:47:33 Yeah, yeah, now that that makes sense. I have a self driving self cleaning or self validation. Right. Oh, this one's clean enough and there's nothing wrong. There's nobody cut the seats with a knife or anything like that, right, or barfed in the car and left the mass. Well that's always the risk, right because people that maybe drink too much are more likely to take a take a taxi or an uber taxi. Or you have kids, they get car sack. Right. I've had car kids barfing my Tesla. By the way, they clean up pretty good, even the white seats. People is like, oh yeah, the white seats they wipe up real good. Yeah, So it's gonna have to be some sort of automation on that, because I mean it's like you're going to take it to a detail shop after every.

1:48:17 Ride, No, and it needs to validate. And then the concern about viruses or something sharing and things like that, I'm sure there's sensitivity to that too. Right, there shouldn't be too much of a viral problem as long as there's a few minutes between riders. Right, somebody sneezed on the steering well, you shouldn't be touching a steering wheel. Why are you touching anything? Do they leave a cloud of virus in your cabin? Well that gets cleaned out in a few seconds, right, So yeah, so it's a new world. But you're right about the autonomous cleaning. I think that's a big part of doing it right because the system has to validate that car is good to go and good to go back into the fleet and pick somebody up, because it needs to be consistent. Consistency builds brands. I talked to Sebastian Thrun who runs Weyma, who ran Weymo started Weimo, started Google's autonomous car industry company, and he was like, we've talked about what makes a great brand, like Starbucks. Why is Starbucks so good? Starbucks is actually shitty coffee. It's not the coffee that sells it. It's the consistency. Because humans can get used to shitty I'm drinking some Starbucks right now, right, it's shitty coffee, but I got addicted to it because human mind. I learned this. Human mind can get used to shitty things, right, and actually starts liking it. Because every morning you get the same shitty coffee, you get used to it, you get you get the caffeine out

1:49:50 of it and whatever else you put in it. The Starbucks. What makes Starbucks really special is the consistency. You get the same latte in London and Japan where you go the battle, right, it's exactly the same. Experience is exactly the same. And ubiquity. There's three of them in one mall in Yokama, Japan, right, so you're in the mall. You don't even have to walk very far to get your Starbucks. It's like, where are you in the mall? There's three of them, It's like, right, and so uber has ubiquity, but they don't have consistency. Right, Oh, it is wildly inconsistent, right. Right, because the car is inconsistent. Sometimes it's a new Mercedes Benz that picks you up. Sometimes it's a shitty old beat up Toyota. Right, yeah right, I.

1:50:38 Got any shit beat up cars before, right. Yeah right? And so as Tesla, you know what you're gonna get. Even if it's beat up, it's a Tesla. It's safe, and it's fairly fun to be in, right because the batteries are underneath you, and it's fairly good at driving around. It's actually a really great car to drive. And two, if you get rid of the humans, then consistency you get rid of the humans. Now you have a much more consistent service that's going to make the brand resonance around such surface go up. Right. And so in ten years, when you get into Vegas and you need a ride to take you to the hotel or to the convention center or something like that, which one do you choose to use? Do you order a Waimo or a Zeus or a GM Cruise which is zuber, or do you get a Tesla. Yeah, Well, the Tesla has a better experience inside, so I know how this game is going to go down. And the Tesla is built with less technology. So it's cheaper.

1:51:39 Yeah. Well, I think that's the key advantage, that the ability to make things that are reliable or mostly reliable. Right and for cheaper right. Light ours costs a bunch of more money. And then you have to have two computers to process lighter and camera because like the Weimo camera car has like nineteen cameras on it, the test only has nine and it has a whole bunch of light ours, which. Wor's the ninth camera on the Tesla? Is that a new addition to. The there's three four, three in the front wind shale, there's two more and that's five. There's two more and that's six, seven, and there's one in the back that's eight, and there's one inside that's nine.

1:52:22 Oh okay, got it. Yeah, I think I forgot to mention the one that's in the roar view mirror. Yeah. Always machines watching you. Yeah, you know how many times you pick your nose, you know. And it's not always able. To don't do anything like that, but it could. Yeah. I was driving in the dark last night and occasionally I could tell that it couldn't really see my eyes because of the light in the cabin. Wasn't that bright, so so it was flashing. Oh no, no, it was flashing on the screen and I'm like going, I'm shaking the steirring wheel and adjusting the speed and stuff, and it was recognizing, So it was definitely prioritizing its vision over even touching the string wheel.

1:53:06 So right now, for the next year, so it's going to be in a dangerous state where it's making a lot less mistakes than it used to, and therefore humans are going to change their behavior of using the vehicle and start sleeping in the vehicle or looking at their phone more often or something like that. Right, and then it makes a stupid ask mistake and kills you. And that's the problem. So they need the humans still to be supervising the machine right to keep the safety rating up. Eventually, eighteen months thirty six months from now, it's going to be so good it's never going to kill you. So that's when they can turn off all the nags. But yeah, it's the few years away unsupervised, not the current supervised as well. Yeah, is what it's going to take probably for the I would think for them human.

1:53:56 Drive around without a human in its already humanless in San Francisco, right, no human needed. That's pretty cool. Yeah, but it also is a limited capable area that it can operate in too. Right, Yeah, but actually talking to them, they say, no, that's just it's temporary. They tell me it's temporary. They can drive everywhere in America, they just choose not to because they don't have the fleet to support that, or the business model or the bards or any of that stuff. Right, So they're starting in just a few cities like Phoenix and San Francisco getting it good. Then they're going to grow it to more cities. How many years before it has half of all of American cities? I think there's three hundred cities with one hundred thousand people or more in America. How long will it take to get half of those? And then how long will it take to get all of those? Yeah? Not many years.

1:54:53 So Robert kind of the last topic here, and we will call this episode a rep but I wanted to ask you what do you think think the skills are the humans need to gain right now to prepare for this shift? I mean, are we is it trying to adopt this technology? Like you have to learn about it so you're not getting behind? Is that the key or I mean, what kind of skills do you think people need? Right now, that's when, first of all, understand what it does for you and what it doesn't do for you, and how that's changing. Because AI today that doesn't do what you want it to. Right, If you're asking for a business plan or something, and maybe it doesn't do a good job today, is that going to be true in a year? Is it going to be true in two years? Is it going to be true in three years?

1:55:40 In three years, now, it's going to be really good. So you have to get involved earlier. The earlier you get involved, the more you'll understand how to control the machine, how to talk to it, how to get it to do things right. And you'll also have a much better idea that your job's going away if it is right. Because if you're watching the fifty four hundred AI companies that I have on X, you can see it coming. You can go through them all. Oh, that company could do away with my job or that company could right, and so understanding that it's important. The last one to get fired is a person who knows how to use AI, because they're going to be more productive. Right If you're a programmer, and you're using AI or twice as productive as a human who doesn't use AI already today. So if you're not using AI as a programmer, you're an idiot. Yeah, you're going to get fired. There's also have a job, You're going to be the first to get fired because all the rest of the team is using AI. They're twice as productive as you are.

1:56:43 Well that and also is it even secure with that? Isn't AI going to be able to write code? Oh? Does? It does? But right now you need a human to tell the thing. But to right, I need a totally or whatever right. Prompt it right to be able to Yeah, you need to tell what you need to create it to right it bullshits once a while, you've got to. If you're a computer scientist, you know how to fix it. But the people who are using it at an advanced level are way ahead of the other programmers who aren't using it yet. Right, And I think a good example of even AI makes mistakes is chat GPT four Omni is creating images. It constantly makes typos in its images. So if you wanted to output texts, and this is maybe an indication that we're at a phase where it can't really create error free code. Right, If you can't create error free images with texts when it's an LLM.

1:57:38 Better, how many more months will it be before it fixes the right? And I've been waiting for like a year. But there's a whole bunch of companies who are trying to fix that problem. I just interviewed, Well you did yesterday. Yeah, they're building a system for enterprises that learns iteratively and refine tunes that the business model that you're building gets better and better and reduces loucinations over time. Right. Yeah. I've also seen these AI models battle with each other too, Like, all create something in chat, GPT four omni and I will run it through grammarly, which is another AI engine, and it'll tear apart what I learned yesterday. Yeah.

1:58:23 That okay. So there's one technique. You can spit an answer out of a large language model like chat GPT four to oh right, and then bring it back into the model and have it rate itself, have it rate its own answer for accuracy and stuff like that, and it actually does a pretty good job. But if you give the same answer to it, let's say LAMA for meta corporation a different large language model much more accurate. Yeah. And I talked to a grammar expert on on my podcast tip show that I Do, and I told her about this battle between chat GPT writing and Grammarly and she told me that she prefers chat GPT's writing is more grammar grammars accurate than Grammarly. I thought was interesting feedback on those models.

1:59:11 The large language model that open Ai has more parameters than the grammarly model, right, and it has a lot more engineering behind it because they got ten billion dollars and they have a lot of N video cards. It's an if you want to know who has the best models, look at who has the N video cards, because they're probably the ones that has the best models, right. I mean Tesla's model, Xai's model A rock just got way better in the last week. Why because he got in new N video cards turned on and all of a sudden, his models are getting better because he can give it more data and she's faster, right, and better and train it better because you have if you have one hundred thousand video cards and you're using the same data set, it can give you a better parameter model. It can make a finer model, right, because it has more compute to go through it more and more times to build that model.

2:00:01 So, Robert, I know you're always looking at this stuff. Is there anything that we haven't talked about that do you think are revolutionary and what we can expect here. I was just talking to a couple of investors, big investors, and they're talking about the same kind of things. Virtual beings are coming, and they're going to be pretty crazy because once you've got a pair of glasses on, you could have something that looks like a humanoid robot standing next to you, but it's just all virtual, right ding, and it can talk to you and interact with you. High five you even right shoot it, right, And a guy in a game, you know, your non playable characters are going to get pretty smart pre standing. You're going to have conversations with him before you shoot, and you're.

2:00:43 Going to look completely crazy because you're going to be looking like this and talking to nobody, right, and then you're gonna. Shoot it in the head. But I don't like your hands, I'm going to shoot you. So we have all these people walking around in the world talking to the virtual agents, so nobody else can see. Wait, wait until there's a new kind of paintball game or something in your neighborhood. You're wearing the glasses and all sorts of mayhem is happening virtually out in the street. You got to go and shoot some things and get some exercise. Yeah, that's coming. The guy who started Mattia showed me monsters on the sides of the skyscrapers like thirteen years ago, and he got hired by Apple to build the strategy for the Vision Pro. Right, so I still don't have that. I'm still waiting for monsters, he promised me. Monsters. I still don't have monsters on the sides of skyscrapers. Really, So I was talking it's close with the Vision Pro. It's close, but you know. Yeah.

2:01:37 So I was talking to a guy from Apple on a trip to Washington, d C. This past week, and he was telling me that there's big things coming from Apple around AI. Yeah, is there any glimpse that you can give us on. Well, they have intelligence, all right, So I avenue system a news series coming, whether it's really amazing or not. Right now, nobody thinks it's really amazing. But there's a new AI coming and He's right, they're spending a lot of effort. I mean, I see one of the guys right here who's building infrastructure at MLAX infrastructure for Apple, and they're doing a pretty interesting set of things. The other thing like this M one processor I'm talking to you on, so I'm talking to you on iMac. Twenty one percent of that processors for neural is for AI infancing.

2:02:26 Most people don't haven't even used that part of the chip yet. I have four of them in my house. I don't use it, and I'm an AI influencer who supposed he uses a lot AI to build a summary of a transcript only takes a few hundred milliseconds. Then it's back to not doing anything. Oh so there's not enough for it to do yet. Well, by the end of next year, I have a feeling there will be a lot more things for that chip to do. Do you know what if the Intel I nine processor has anything in it for AI? They're behind Apple and others. They're trying the intelligence added. A lot of the PCs are getting AI capabilities, but other companies are ahead in terms of trillions of operations per second, which is what it's going to make the robot of the future or the virtual being of the future do a lot, right so, or the holidack. We're doing a holideck soon, right, because right now I'm looking at you on pixels on a small screen. Well, what happens when it's volumetric pixels and there is no screens?

2:03:34 You're in my room, right, that's what that's what's coming is a completely virtualized environment, digital twin around you, three. And sixty degree recreation, right, is that what you're saying? Whatever you want, right, it's all voxels. Right. You go to the Apple Store and put on the vision pro right, and you see the Apple Store. You're not seeing Apple store. You're seeing the computers green. Right, everything is created for you. So you and you start going, oh wait a second. Every box will can be changed by the AI computer. Right, So I can change the Apple Store into usemity, and it does. You turn the knot You're in u Semity.

2:04:16 You turn the non bag, You're in the Apple store, right, and soon you're going to have that in your house with more capabilities. Right, freak freak and more freak. Mid Journey is building a holiday Unity Labs is building a holidayy And if those two are building holidaggs. I assume a lot of other companies are building holidays because that's how you're going to compute soon. So I think we've already invented the replicator right from star Wick, from Star Trek, right the holidayck. So is there anything missing off of the star Trek Tech playbook that we haven't recreated the transporter? That's going to be a hard Now I can transport you did into your robot, right, So if you're in Germany on a business trip and you have a humanoid robot in your kitchen, you could jump into your robot and now you're really in your kitchen, right writing things around. Right.

2:05:12 You don't have to take the risk of being de atomized in the process. Right, you know. We can do this digitally, but not physically, right, not not with our bodies. Right. You can't cut that up and translate that over the internet. But we can embody. If you were wearing glasses, I could embody myself into your head, right and experience life like how you're experiencing it. So if you're in the front row of a Taylor Swift concert, share, yeah, share your glasses with me. Man, come on, don't hold out Taylor Swift on maybe even charge people you want to watch Taylor Swift in the front row. I'd spend five thousand dollars on these tacks.

2:05:55 I need some money bags, twenty bucks for each of year fifty. That's I was going to say, you could sell excess. Right, It's yeah, right. Bingo reality TV, a new kind of reality TV. And then Taylor Swift could take a rev share on that. Well, now are you embodied into Taylor Swift's glasses? Ah, there you go. Now that would be probably a more valuable connection. And they you know, then it gets weird because once you do that, then you have professional video people around. But and you can pop from person a person. If there's a front row at the Taylor Swift concert and everybody is wearing Apple glasses or Apple, some are wearing Apple, some are wearing metaglasses, you can embody yourself in any of those people, right, And the computer can join all of those cameras together into an array camera, a light field camera, because that's what I think Stanford's first light field camera work. They had a grid cameras, right, And so now you have people standing next to each other wearing cameras. You could join all those together and make a three D scene of the Taylor Swift stage. Right.

2:07:11 Yeah, I think you've come up with a new way for people to have a job, Robert. You know, I'm signing up for that job. I got to go to concerts every Friday. Okay, sure that sounds fun. Make a couple of grand every weekend because I'm going to some cold concert. Yeah. Yeah. Like we've seen in the past with technology, it's created income opportunities in ways that we couldn't have predicted necessarily. Right now, The truth is, I probably if I was that kind of entrepreneur, I would be creating a virtual world with a virtual stage, and I would be creating my own music on that or my own experiences for people, right and selling that. But yeah, people are going to pay for all sorts of weird shit. Like to watch a guy run a suit streaming plant today, that's twenty bucks.

2:08:03 You know, I don't know why you want to watch it? Got work, right, you know, I finishing for an hour? You know, I think we've seen some of the stuff happened before, like like back in the early days of the internet. Jobs new kind of dirty like personal bloggers, right, that would mount a camera on their head, right, Yeah. Justin Ken who started twitch before he started twitch. He there's another one that did that. Bingo, right, But Justin had five cell phones in his backpack, all multiplex together, so you could always have a signal. And I I think it was a life cam is what they called it back then, right, I think it was a life cam. Yeah. Microsoft research was wearing a life cam and did a whole bunch of research of wearing a camera permanently.

2:08:45 And really you try to do it with the Google Glasses for a while too. I did the Google Glass. The battery didn't last very long, so if you're like, if you're streaming or recording on it, it could only record for forty five minutes before the thing died. That's what a lot of people are you recording me? I'm like, fuck, no, it takes too much battery to record you, and you're not interesting enough to record yet, you know. Yeah, and if people knew that you were you had a video camera on there, they'd be less likely to come up and talk to you. Right, No, that was no. In fact, that encourages encourage them to do That encourages Coachella. Thomas Hawk and I had big six hundred millimeter lenses at this music festival, and having those lenses in the field, people would come up and dance for us. They wanted to be photographed. Right, There's a whole continent of human beings who see a camera and they start performing for it. Right, It's just innately, it's like, oh, there's camera, let's start doing something.

2:09:42 Goofy, right, create a TikTok. It's infinite. I mean, this is a new job though. Right as we kill old jobs like driving a truck or something like that, there's all sorts of new jobs coming on the metaphor in the future of this stuff, right, because we're going to be walking around and want to play a new game. You're going to have a shack with new games, and you're going to sell me new games or new clothes or new guns, or new experiences or new concerts or right, or new kinds of art museums or new kinds of nightclubs are all coming. Right. It's all really based on the attention economy, which has been around for a long time.

2:10:24 Right. I remember we talked about that a lot on the early days of the Internet. Was how people are going to have full time jobs around capturing and maintaining attention. Yeah, and that's what's happened at my stuff. We had a Second Life island back in two thousand and five, right, And the only reason that didn't work out is the technology was too early. You could only have one hundred people on an island, and we paid one hundred grand to run the island, to build an island. And I remember that. If I could get a few thousand people on that island and it'd still be offering today. Right. It's a great way to interact with people or your customers. It's much better than going to going to Google meet or whatever.

2:11:07 Right, yeah zoom. Well, well, Robert, it's been fun living in the future and talking about what's to come and how how to maybe trust some of this stuff just based on us having better knowledge about what's coming. So run your models locally, right, Well, I think if you don't trust it, if you don't trust the man, don't give him your data. Create your own ll M right on your well, or use a lot to use an LLLM that you can run locally on your own machine and not be connected to the internet. Not give the cloud computing, any info of how yourself humans work. If it's more convenient to give the man the data, you're going to give the man.

2:11:48 The data, and you're the one that's being sold. Many times, if you look inside a large thang model, it read my blog for a decade, right, and it knows a lot about me, It really does. It's scary, yeah, and it's probably growing in this knowledge. That's probably why I'm willing to trust it, because I'm already deep inside of it. Right. It knows U asked Rock show me all points of view about Roberts Gobel. That tells you what I've done bad in the world and what I've done good in the world. M that's a new privacy problem. Everybody knows your ship.

2:12:31 Better be careful. It's like Santa Claus. He knows when you've been naughty or nice, and he's keeping a list. It's and here you go. All the time, right, all the time. Coca Cola is going to have you have all your naughties. Well, Robert, let's talk about how listeners can get a hold of you. And you got it on the screenscobilizer. Right. If you can't find me, you can't find anybody, right, that's a good point. Put my last name, you'll find me. And then it's your YouTube channel that has your videos that you have up there. Yeah, that's one of them. The un ligne is on another one, but you can figure it out. Thanks from x dot com. Sure, yep. Well, thank you so much, Robert for spending what close to two and a half hours with me.

2:13:17 Yeah, it's fun. You're awesome. Well, thank you so much. I appreciate you taking time. This actually the first time i've well, it's been a few months since I did the last Trust Factor episode, so we covered. A lot of things. There's a lot of trust problems coming. Right, and I'm just starting to unpack this. This is the thirteenth episode of the series, so I've been diving into this and a lot of the topics have been about AI, so I plan on logging and digging in deeper to other aspects of trust too. That are, we. Didn't even talk about an intellectual property. I mean, if you're a business and you have a whole bunch of plans for your next product, do you want to give that the chat GPT? I would think twice, right.

2:14:02 Right, that's true. That's true because you're not getting paid for that. Are you going through the API door? Are you going through the front door, Because if you go through the front door, they use your data to train models. If you go through the API door like your software engineer, they claim they don't use that data. So even right there, you have to know the difference, and you have to know what you're doing, which most people don't. Yeah, I think isn't open ai under a fair amount of lawsuits right right now for copyright infringement. Well, that's because of how they train the models. Right. They just ingested everything they ingested, and that's why it knows me. It ingested my blog for ten years and stole it to make the model. They didn't pay me.

2:14:48 I didn't get a paycheck in the mail for this, right, Yeah, But they just. Think you'd have to Yeah, I think you'd have to comb through the terms of service with YouTube too to find out. I'm sure that they're using all those videos is training data. And it changes x dot. AI just changed Twitter's terms of surface so that they can use all of your data unless you change it back to say now you can, right, And most people don't even know that, right, So most people haven't turned it on. I actually leave it on because I want the AI have all my data because it already has all my data anyways, but the more data I give it, the better it gets. Right, And this is the problem. Everybody's going to do this and people get wound up. No, I'm not going to do that.

2:15:30 I'm like, yes you are. If you're going to have a robot in your house or at least at least delivering pizza to your front door, and it's going to look inside your house a nice. House, totally. So well, Robert, thank you so much. I'll let you move on with your DAYO. Yeah, same here. Thanks. I appreciate it very much, and thank you everybody for watching this and joining me. This show can be found in an audio podcast too, so if you want to let your friend know that this is available. I think this was a pretty in depth conversation about the impacts of robots and AI and people's lives. I'm not sure that there's a lot of other shows that have dived to the level that we've build in on this, and Robert's a terrific resource for this, and so so I'm gonna it'll be interesting.

2:16:20 To see how many people give this show to their AI it's like two and a half hour. They watched the two and a half hour show and tell me if there's any anything interesting in it. Yeah, give me a synopsis and just tell me the highlights. Totally agree. Yeah, so yeah, a new world. Yeah, and definitely leave some comments and questions that I'd be happy to answer them, and I'm sure Robert would love to see those as well. Yeah, and you're always looking for feedback and you're always doing spaces sessions too, talking about these topics as well. I'm doing different things and I joined a testa group, I join a lot of AI groups. And then there's on Thursday there's AI show for developers engineers AI engineers, right Nerdier. On Monday, there's another guy who does this show on AI News right, So fucking and out of different shows.

2:17:11 That's fantastic. So I'm going to say goodbye to everybody out there and thank you so much for spending so much time with us. If you managed to make it through two and a half hours. And this whole show is going to be on replay on LinkedIn and x as well as Facebook and YouTube, so then it's also available as a YouTube or as a podcast audio podcast. Trust Factor is the name of the show, so go subscribe to that. So thank you so much.